Why an Autonomous Weapons Ban Is So Hard to Achieve: Former Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall's Analysis

Former U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall has addressed one of the most pressing questions in contemporary defense and technology policy: can the international community effectively control autonomous weapons systems through arms control agreements? The question forms a central theme of an excerpt from his new book, published in an international defense media outlet.

The Verification Problem

Kendall argues that, unlike conventional weapons, autonomous weapons systems present a fundamental verification challenge that undermines traditional arms control mechanisms. Past treaties—such as those governing nuclear or chemical weapons—have functioned because the weapons themselves possess measurable, detectable physical characteristics that can be monitored and verified by outside parties.

Autonomous systems, however, derive their critical capabilities from software algorithms and artificial intelligence models. These are effectively invisible to external inspection, making it nearly impossible to confirm compliance with any agreed limits.

Defining the Problem Is Itself a Problem

A further obstacle is the absence of any internationally agreed definition of what constitutes an "autonomous weapon." The spectrum runs from semi-autonomous to fully autonomous, and from defensive to offensive applications, with many gradations of automation in between. Kendall contends that without a precise and agreed definition, any prohibition risks becoming purely nominal—easily circumvented through semantic distinctions or technical workarounds.

Geopolitical Realities

Kendall also points to the geopolitical constraints that make multilateral negotiations particularly difficult. In an era of intense great-power competition, the leading military powers—most notably the United States, China, and Russia—are all investing heavily in autonomous weapons research and development. Each party fears that unilaterally restraining its own autonomous weapons programs would create a strategic disadvantage, leaving multilateral treaty negotiations effectively deadlocked.

Conclusion

Kendall's analysis offers a practitioner's perspective on the ongoing international debate over Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS). While international bodies such as the United Nations continue to push for normative frameworks, the challenge of reconciling technological reality with ethical responsibility remains a formidable task for policymakers worldwide.

This article is based on an excerpt from Frank Kendall's new book, as published in an international defense media outlet.

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