Narco Drones: How Latin American Drug Cartels Use UAVs as Strategic Deterrence Weapons

Norwegian researcher Håvard Haugstvedt has published a study in the academic journal Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflicts titled "Aerial Operations by Drug Trafficking Organizations: Examining the Use of UAVs as Strategic Deterrence Tools by Latin American Cartels." The paper shifts the conversation on drone warfare from the Middle East to Mexico's Michoacán and Guerrero states.

Drawing on 44 documented incidents between 2017 and 2024, Haugstvedt argues that Mexican drug cartels have developed an aerial deterrence playbook that more closely resembles a scaled-down "strategic bombing campaign" than the improvised tactics typically associated with insurgent groups.

Breaking Down the Data

Among the cartels studied, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) led with 18 attacks, followed by La Familia Michoacana with 14 recorded incidents. The majority of events were concentrated in Michoacán and Guerrero—two states that serve as critical battlegrounds for methamphetamine production and drug trafficking routes.

What sets the cartels apart from armed organizations such as ISIS or the Houthis is their choice of targets. While most violent non-state armed groups focus strikes on military and security forces, cartel drones far more frequently target civilians and private property—a finding the study identifies as its most significant.

Tactical Implications

Haugstvedt interprets this pattern of attacks on civilians as deliberate signaling behavior. Drone strikes on agricultural communities such as El Caracol or Petatlán send a clear message: undermine rival groups' civilian support bases while reminding entire towns who holds actual control over the territory.

Haugstvedt also highlights the information dimension of these tactics. He argues that filming and widely disseminating footage of the attacks is almost as effective as the bombs themselves—the psychological shock generated by the imagery is, in many cases, the primary objective.

Policy Recommendations

In his policy recommendations, Haugstvedt is explicit: cartel drone use should be treated as a governance challenge, not simply a weapons control issue. He also calls on governments to establish cross-border intelligence-sharing mechanisms before these tactics proliferate to mid- and small-scale criminal organizations in the United States and Europe.

However, judging by the rate of adoption evident in the existing data, that window for a proactive response may be closing fast.

This article was originally published in the Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University.

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