IISS Report: Russia 'Highly Likely' Behind Drone Incursions Over US Military Bases in the UK

IISS Report: Russia 'Highly Likely' Behind Drone Incursions Over US Military Bases in the UK

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has released a major report concluding that Russia's Kremlin is 'highly likely' responsible for a series of drone incursions across Europe that began in August 2024. The report provides the most comprehensive analytical framework to date for the mysterious drone overflights of US Air Force bases in the United Kingdom that occurred in November 2024.

Core Findings

The IISS stated explicitly: "We assess that the Kremlin has conducted a drone campaign against Europe." The report further concluded that "Russian-linked vessels and their 'shadow fleet' have been used as drone launch and recovery platforms as part of Russia's broader unconventional warfare against Europe."

Investigators relied primarily on circumstantial evidence and open-source information, and the report's conclusions have not been officially confirmed by any government.

Background: Incursions Over UK Bases

In November 2024, unidentified drones were observed over the following UK Royal Air Force bases, all of which host US military personnel and assets:

• RAF Lakenheath
• RAF Fairford
• RAF Feltwell
• RAF Mildenhall

Similar incidents were also recorded at Ramstein Air Base in Germany during the same period.

The IISS report highlighted the particular strategic sensitivity of RAF Lakenheath, which is being prepared to once again host nuclear weapons, making it a high-value intelligence target.

Witness Accounts and Operational Patterns

Following a public appeal for information, authorities received approximately 170 sighting reports, of which roughly half were deemed credible — corroborated by multiple witnesses or supported by imagery that could not be explained by conventional aircraft.

The IISS noted that the drones' flight behaviour indicated a high degree of operational security awareness:

• Drones approached RAF bases at low altitude with lights visible
• They climbed to higher altitudes upon departure
• Approach and exit vectors varied between incidents

Witness descriptions suggested more than one drone type may have been involved: some accounts were consistent with multi-rotor platforms, while others matched fixed-wing aircraft. Propulsion sound descriptions were also inconsistent — some observers noted noise more characteristic of a petrol engine rather than an electric motor.

The 'Shadow Fleet' Connection

The report singles out a vessel named Hav Dolphin, which was subsequently linked to drone incidents in Germany in 2025 and was confirmed to have been moored in the UK during the November 2024 base incursions.

The IISS described such vessels as "Russian-linked commercial ships, including shadow fleet oil tankers, coastal freighters, and small craft."

Orlan-10: A Candidate Platform

The IISS identified the Russian military drone Orlan-10 as a platform consistent with the operational requirements of the campaign:

• In service: Russian Armed Forces since 2010
• Operational range: 500 km
• Endurance: Up to 12 hours
• Speed: 90–130 km/h
• Propulsion: Internal combustion engine (consistent with witness descriptions of petrol-engine noise)
• Payload options: Satellite navigation jamming modules, GSM network monitoring modules, optical and thermal imaging sensors; capable of both active electronic warfare and passive intelligence collection

These specifications are consistent with the hypothesis of launches from vessels operating beyond visual range, well off the European coastline.

However, the IISS also acknowledged that deploying a recognisable Russian drone platform "carries attribution risk in itself" and proposed an equally plausible alternative: "To maintain plausible deniability, the actual platforms used may be commercially available or modified systems, including long-range FPV systems, homebrew fixed-wing aircraft, or commercial drones adapted to use cellular communications instead of radio frequency links."

Official Responses

The UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated: "The UK takes the security of military bases extremely seriously. The Armed Forces Act grants defence personnel enhanced counter-drone powers, and we have made significant investment in counter-UAS capabilities." The MoD declined to comment on intelligence matters or specific base security arrangements. Notably, the MoD's investigation into the RAF Lakenheath incident did not result in the identification of any suspects.

US Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) confirmed: "In 2024, small unmanned aerial systems were observed over several of our UK installations. These incidents were monitored and confirmed to have no impact on personnel or operations." The command indicated a more detailed response was forthcoming but had not been issued as of the US Independence Day holiday.

UK parliamentarians have pressed for greater transparency: former Conservative Defence Select Committee chair Julian Lewis called on the government to consolidate its findings and make a statement to Parliament, while former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat described the matter as requiring "urgent investigation by the Ministry of Defence and UK intelligence agencies."

Limitations of the Report

The IISS acknowledged that its maritime launch hypothesis "rests on a convergence of opportunity, demonstrated capability, and consistent geographical patterns — but no European government has publicly linked a specific shadow fleet vessel to a specific incident, even though officials have privately indicated they can do so."

Drone incursions over military installations are not exclusively a European concern. US bases have experienced multiple similar incidents, including the December 2023 overflight at Langley Air Force Base and, more recently, an incursion at Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana — home to B-52 bombers and nuclear weapons. The perpetrators of those incidents have not been publicly identified.

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